China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2013 Investors and policymakers have been sounding more upbeat on China’s economicprospects recently. But sentiment among Chinese businesses appears still to beweakening. Meanwhile, Chinese households are... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack State sector leads a rebound August’s data confirmed that the economy has turned a corner. Industrial output growth was the strongest since spring last year. Investment and exports also gathered pace. It is notable though that... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? The free trade zone about to be set up in Shanghai is intended as a testing ground for new policies, with a focus on liberalising the service sector, and financial services in particular. Successful... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity, spending & credit (Aug.) Today’s data releases give further evidence that China’s economy is picking up speed. But the rebound is skewed towards investment, with state-led spending on infrastructure particularly strong. The... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Encouraging signs on inflation and foreign demand Today’s inflation data added no additional pressure for monetary tightening while the weekend’s export data provided further evidence of a revival in foreign demand. 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation stabilised over the summer and, while it is still likely to rise later in the year, the outlook is even more benign than we had anticipated a few months ago. We are lowering... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug 13.) After some slightly mixed signals in July, August’s pick-up in both manufacturing PMIs leaves no doubt that China’s manufacturing sector has witnessed a rebound. It still appears though that the... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gains from interest rate liberalisation being overplayed High hopes are being pinned on interest rate liberalisation to inject some vitality into China’s economy. But the full gains from liberalisation will only be realised if the government is willing to... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China bucks Asian market turmoil China’s financial markets have remained stable in August despite the turmoilelsewhere thanks to capital controls and the release of some positive economic data.However, Hong Kong equities have... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug 13.) The strong rebound in August’s flash PMI should reassure even the most bearish that China has avoided an imminent hard-landing. We continue to believe however that the rebound will prove short-lived... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Broader signs of rebound The latest Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions have started to thaw across key sectors of the economy. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
