China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector pulls back With output growth stable and inflation contained, October’s data signalled two key developments: a pull back in investment by the state sector, particularly in infrastructure, and a slowdown in... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of improvement in EM manufacturing Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have made a strong start to Q4. Our EM-wide PMI estimate, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with a pick-up in industrial production... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct 13.) Both PMI surveys released today suggest that China’s manufacturing sector picked up at the beginning of Q4. But in each case the breakdown of the survey paints a less rosy picture than the headline... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Little sign of recovery in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was probably unchanged from Q2 in the third quarter. Although there is evidence of a recovery in Emerging Asia, growth in Latin America probably slowed in Q3... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities fall, market rates rise China's stock market fell in late October as money-market rates surged. A rerun of June's cash crunch is not on the cards, but there is increasing evidence that the policy stance is shifting back... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What can we expect from the Third Plenum? Expectations that detailed new policies will be unveiled at the upcoming Third Plenum are likely to be disappointed. But the key gauge of success should instead be whether the leadership presents a... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time for greater differentiation in EM growth stories Our view that the major BRIC emerging markets were heading for a period of permanently weaker growth looked bold when we set it out a little over a year ago, but it has now been adopted by the... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct 13.) The manufacturing sector has gained some strength in October according to today's flash PMI but, with the government trying to rein in credit, slower growth lies ahead. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Momentum fading The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the summer rebound in growth came to an end in September, as momentum in the state sector that had led the recovery began to fade. 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2013) Consumer spending growth appears to have picked up in large parts of the emerging world over the past couple of quarters but Emerging Asia has bucked the trend and spending growth there has continued... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
