Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in consumer price inflation that started in early summer looks near to an end. With policymakers focussing on reining in credit, and few signs of underlying price pressures, we expect... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2014 China’s leaders are gathering again in Beijing, this time to discuss priorities for 2014. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov 13.) The latest PMI surveys beat expectations but they also hint that momentum in manufacturing has peaked. In particular, output is outpacing orders. Meanwhile, all of the recent gains have come from... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track? The Third Plenum provided an impressive statement of reform intentions but it changed nothing on the ground. What signposts can we look for to gauge how rapidly new policies are being implemented? 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would RMB liberalisation have on Treasuries? The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China's Third Plenum reforms - what they mean for Asia The recently concluded Third Plenum in China has raised hopes that the country’s new leadership is serious about the need for meaningful reform and a rebalancing of the economy. This Weekly looks at... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM exporters benefit from Chinese rebound EM exporters appear to have benefited from the recent investment-led rebound in China. But with China's infrastructure spending now easing again and policymakers determined to rein in credit growth... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth? The reform package agreed at the Third Plenum is unlikely to have a big impact on China's immediate economic outlook but, if implemented effectively, it should allow China to sustain stronger growth... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov 13.) Today's downbeat flash PMI adds to the evidence that the recent economic rebound is fading. The efforts of policymakers to slow credit growth are set to further weigh on growth in the months ahead. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Industry still strong, but growth elsewhere slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy has slowed for a second successive month, despite continued strength in industry. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Land reform set to boost rural incomes The Party leadership has given its blessing to land reforms that should shift more income to rural households. Change will happen slowly but the result should be a boost to consumer spending. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Plenum promises shift in market rules The reform plan unveiled following the Third Plenum has refocused attention on the position of state-owned firms in China’s economy. During the first decade of this century, China’s state sector... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reform package exceeds expectations The underwhelming Communiqué released after the Third Plenum on Tuesday raised big questions about whether the leadership had been able to get backing for a meaningful package of reforms. On the basis... 15th November 2013 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Subdued recovery in Hong Kong Another disappointing set of GDP figures for Hong Kong has tempered hopes for a strong revival of growth. A pick-up in global trade flows should help over the coming year, but we expect Hong Kong's... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
