China Economics Update First appearances deceptive At first sight, today’s trade data from China imply that export demand has weakened while domestic demand has picked up speed. But once we take into account previous distortions in the export data... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation fell further in December on the back of a sharp drop in food inflation. It may rebound this month due to the usual price volatility around Chinese New Year but is likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unresolved tension in policy clouds outlook for 2014 The ongoing slowdown in China's economy is bringing into focus a tension in the government's objectives that is likely to be a key source of uncertainty in the months ahead. With the GDP growth target... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Inflation appears to have finished 2013 on a subdued note. Policymakers’ latest moves to tighten the regulation of shadow banking along with other measures intended to rein in credit growth should... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing outperforming in more open EMs Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI edged down last month, but industry still appears to have ended 2013 stronger than it was in the third quarter of last year. At a regional level, activity accelerated in... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The latest PMI surveys signal that there was a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity at the end of 2013. Most notably, activity among large firms, a recent source of strength, has turned a corner... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities slump, market rates surge China’s interbank rates have surged this week on the back of seasonal tightness in liquidity that has been compounded by uncertainty about policymakers’ intentions. But with the People’s Bank today... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2014 For all the recent talk of a “Great Deceleration”, we think that the bulk of the slowdown in EM growth has already happened. Growth in aggregate next year looks set to be broadly unchanged from 2013... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP growth slowing in Q4 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that GDP growth has slowed to around 7.5% y/y in the final quarter of the year. 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Today’s downbeat flash PMI leaves little doubt that the manufacturing sector is now cooling. Tighter access to credit will continue to weigh on growth in 2014. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Local government debt key challenge for 2014 China's government has sounded a sanguine note about GDP growth at the close of its Economic Work Conference. Monetary policy will remain "prudent" and fiscal policy "proactive" in 2014. In practice... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Nov.) While bank lending was stronger than anticipated last month, overall credit growth continued to slow. The relative strength of loan demand may reflect the fact that rising market interest rates have... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial production, retail sales & investment (Nov.) Today's activity data releases provide further evidence that the momentum behind the summer rebound has peaked despite renewed strength in the state sector. A tighter policy stance is likely to cause... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisation There has been a rush of interesting data over the past couple of days suggesting that inflation pressures are low and domestic demand is faltering, though exports were less impressive than might... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
