Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency turmoil not yet a risk to EM inflation As things stand, the recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies do not appear to be a major threat to EM inflation. Even those emerging economies that have borne the brunt of the currency... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Economic fallout from market turmoil should be contained It’s too early to say with any certainty what impact the current turmoil in financial markets will have on EM growth. But while we expect the countries that have been hit hardest in recent weeks –... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP data still overestimating China’s growth The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) remains at odds with the official GDP figures, suggesting that the economy slowed by more and was growing at a slower pace in Q4 than the official data... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What damage would a trust default do? A last minute rescue package allowed investors in the troubled “Credit Equals Gold No. 1” trust product to recoup the principal and the bulk of expected interest from their investment this week. But... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Credit risks remain high Worries about the health of China’s financial sector have been eased by today’s news that a high-profile default has been avoided on a troubled RMB3bn trust product (“Credit Equals Gold No. 1”). In... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone recovery offset by slowdown in China Business surveys published today suggest that the euro-zone recovery gained momentum in January, while China's manufacturing slowdown has continued. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Today's downbeat PMI suggests that the slowdown in China's manufacturing sector is accelerating. Tighter monetary conditions appear to be slowing domestic demand and will continue to weigh on growth... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown continuing into 2014 Today’s GDP figures confirm that China’s economy slowed last quarter, with the monthly activity data showing that momentum was still slipping in December. In particular, the infrastructure investment... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the hukou matters less than many think There has been some disappointment since the Third Plenum that the Party is not moving faster to reform the hukou household registration system. This may not matter much for the economy – the... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2014) EM consumer spending grew at its slowest pace since 2009 last year. However, the latest data suggest that spending has started to pick up in recent months and, while a significant upturn seems... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about rising levels of external debt? Most analysis of EM vulnerabilities to Fed tapering and the likelihood of tougher external financing conditions over the coming years has focussed on the size of a country’s current account deficit... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) December’s credit data are likely to set the tone for 2014: tighter monetary conditions are curbing credit growth. We expect this in turn to slow the growth of the economy. Meanwhile, the foreign... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
