China Economics Update Fiscal drag to add to growth concerns Next month’s budget is likely to be neutral for growth. But on a broader definition that accounts for off-budget activity, the fiscal stance this year will probably be a major drag on the economy. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Despite uncertainty surrounding the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year, today's downbeat PMI suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector continue to deteriorate. With no loosening of... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How are Chinese financing deals affecting the copper market? One source of relief for copper producers has been the recent strength of China’s copper imports. This has been somewhat surprising given that other indicators point to weakening Chinese economic... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No shift of monetary stance January’s surge in bank lending in China does not signal any change in policy stance. Bank lending is always strong in January. Looked at in y/y terms, last month’s increase in loan growth was barely... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation, however inflation remained subdued in January. 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports picking up, but recovery uneven Surprisingly strong export growth from China last month has raised hopes of a broader recovery in EM exports. However, the country level data suggest that export performances are highly uneven, with... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) China's exports did far better than expected in January. Over-invoicing as a way to evade capital controls is being touted as one explanation but we can't find much evidence of that – indeed, if... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation. This year though, prices have remained unusually subdued. Inflation is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers at least... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concern In the debate about whether to prioritise shoring up GDP growth or dealing with structural concerns, the latest monetary policy report from the People’s Bank suggests that it is firmly in the latter... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will the BRICs embrace economic reforms? The recent slowdown in the major BRIC economies has been driven largely by structural factors, meaning that a new wave of reforms is needed if they are to regain their vigour. But, as things stand... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How significant are China’s Third Plenum reforms? China's leaders unveiled a detailed and comprehensive plan to reform the economy at the end of last year. The early signs on implementation are encouraging. As a result, we think 2014 will be a... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs highlight EM divergence Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have slowed last month but, perhaps more importantly, there is a widening divergence between countries. Activity seems to be picking up in the more open... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five questions (and answers) about the turmoil in EM markets The emerging world may not be facing a re-run of the late-1990s, as some have suggested, but theprecarious position of some EMs makes it likely that several economies will run into trouble overthe... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowing The period around Chinese New Year is always a difficult time for anyone trying to make sense of what’s happening in China’s economy. It will be another couple of months before we get a clear view of... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A bitter end to the year of the snake January was another disappointing month for China’s equities. The weakness was largely due to problems at home rather than overseas. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
