China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Despite looser monetary conditions in China and concerns that the government is adopting a more “pro-growth” stance, today’s data show that credit has continued to slow. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headline shrink in exports is misleading Yesterday's inflation data point to subdued price pressures. Meanwhile, despite the seasonal volatility in the latest trade data, foreign demand and exports remain healthy. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What if growth falls below 7.5%? China’s leaders have left the GDP growth target unchanged at “about 7.5%” but they are also now talking of focusing on a “range” for growth, determined in part by the health of employment. One... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The unchanged GDP growth target is the big news on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, though the government has given itself more wriggle room on growth than may immediately be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.13) Seasonal shifts in food prices are causing the usual volatility in inflation in the early months of 2014 including, it appears, a drop in the headline rate last month. Stepping back, price pressures... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI surveys confirm the continued slowdown in manufacturing. We think the outlook for the sector remains downbeat. Despite the recent surge in liquidity we suspect that policymakers will... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi hit by a policy wave The People’s Bank (PBC) dropped a large rock into the usually tranquil waters of China’s currency policy in February. Its attempt to reduce speculative inflows caused the largest single-month decline... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia slows as Emerging Europe recovers EM GDP growth has remained stable at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but this has masked a shift in the fortunes for individual regions. Emerging Europe appears to be experiencing a relatively... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can private investment shake-up China's state sector? Policymakers are moving to encourage private investors to play a larger role in China's state sector. However, unless the government is willing to relax control over state firms, investors will have... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band is not the goal A widening of the renminbi’s trading band is likely soon. But it would be wrong to think of such a shift as the main motivation for the currency’s recent moves. Indeed, a wider currency band would not... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the last quarter of 2013, thanks mainly to a continued recovery in exports. Looking ahead, with the territory’s prospects largely dependent on... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More volatility ahead for the renminbi The recent abrupt fall in the renminbi is best seen as a salvo in a battle between policymakers who believe that China’s currency is close to its fair value and market participants who don’t... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM world is facing a difficult year The EM recovery is still struggling for momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting that the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have stalled. On the positive side, it seems unlikely that the most... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
