China Chart Pack NPL ratio remains low but is set to climb Rising non-performing loans (NPLs) at Chinese banks have been making headlines recently. So far the increase has not been much to get excited about. Official data suggest the NPL ratio has barely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Property downturn yet to lead to broader weakness Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, although heavy industry and real estate are showing signs of weakness, broader economic activity is holding up relatively well. 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 14) Hong Kong’s economy slowed sharply in Q1, due to a slump in exports. However, the slowdown is likely to prove temporary, and we expect growth to rebound over the coming quarters as the global economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from China’s rebalancing? China’s economy is likely to slow over the coming years, as it rebalances toward a more sustainablegrowth model. But that won’t necessarily be bad news for all of the EM world. In fact, strong... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where is China heading? China’s economic growth is more likely to slow over the next couple of years than to accelerate, with the property sector in particular appearing on the cusp of a correction. But policymakers have... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) In the face of calls for stimulus, China’s government appears comfortable with a continued slowdown in credit growth. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr 14.) Worries about deflation following the release of today’s price data from China are overdone. Last month's drop in consumer price inflation was due to a sharp fall of vegetable price inflation, which... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Today's trade data are more upbeat about the state of foreign demand than the recovery in the headline numbers suggests. If we strip out exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan, which were most affected by... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in PMIs dashes hopes for sustained recovery in EMs April’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing across the emerging world softened further last month. While there are signs that manufacturing growth in the smaller EMs is starting to lose steam, the... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May 14) Headline inflation is likely to have dropped in April but is set to rebound this month, due to swings in food inflation. That said, the broader picture is that price pressures remain low and stable... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a further slowdown in growth threaten employment? In recent months, Chinese policymakers have stressed repeatedly that employment growth, rather than rapid GDP growth, is their number one priority. This has led to speculation about how fast the... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr 14.) Today’s second successive pick-up in the official PMI is another piece of evidence that economic conditions have stabilised somewhat recently. This should ease concerns of an imminent hard landing... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
