China Economics Update Partial RRR cut illustrates reluctance to ease policy Details just published on the People’s Bank website about the targeted required reserve ratio cut that was first announced in late May underline how reluctant policymakers remain to pursue across-the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May.) The unexpected contraction in imports last month probably overstates the weakness in domestic demand. While we believe that the cooling property sector is indeed weighing on commodity demand, May's... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still resisting calls for broad stimulus In the past few weeks, policymakers have adopted an approach to supporting the economy that is the opposite of that followed in 2008. Then, banks were encouraged to flood the economy with credit. Now... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.14) With both consumer and producer price inflation likely to have risen in May, there are few convincing signs that China is sliding into deflation. This should ease calls for the People’s Bank to roll... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government dependence on property exaggerated The ongoing slowdown in the property sector is hitting land sales, which some have suggested has worrying implications for local government finances. We think the risks are being exaggerated and that... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing strengthens a touch on China rebound May’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing strengthened a little last month, having softened for most of the past half a year. There was a welcome improvement in the PMIs of the BRICs, particularly... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why we are still betting on renminbi appreciation The People’s Bank has succeeded over the past few weeks in shifting expectations for the renminbi’s future path while also scaling back its foreign exchange accumulation. At first glance the data... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A more stable Chinese economy supports prices Energy and industrial commodity prices were boosted by stronger US economic data in May and signs that China’s economy stabilised in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the supply outlook for a number of... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (May.) A third successive pick-up in the official PMI provides further evidence that conditions in manufacturing are improving, thanks to warming foreign demand and a rebound in infrastructure investment... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi stabilises in May The renminbi appears to have stabilised in May as market participants have pared back expectations for the currency’s appreciation. Meanwhile, weaker demand for interbank funds, along with liquidity... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still lagging behind output The volume of world trade fell for a second consecutive month in March, according todata released earlier today. This can partly be attributed to distortions in China’s trade statistics. However... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A positive step on local government debt Allowing local governments to issue bonds is a key step towards boosting transparency and encouraging stronger oversight over fiscal spending. But a broader rebalancing of the revenues and spending... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing data stabilise, but concerns remain Today’s flash manufacturing PMI data for China suggest that the economy is stabilising. While stronger export orders and manufacturing activity are positive news for commodity prices, the commodity... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May.) Today's PMI reading suggests that downwards pressure on the manufacturing sector has eased markedly. It provides further evidence that stronger external demand, along with the rebound in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
