China Economics Update Policymakers taking stock as hard landing fears ease Policymakers in China have good reason to be pleased about the state of the economy at the half-way point of 2014. Their decision to tweak policy rather than opt for broad stimulus appears to have... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Upward pressure on renminbi is building The renminbi has been allowed to strengthen by 0.5% against the dollar so far this month. A rebounding trade surplus will, in our view, force the People’s Bank to tolerate further gains in the months... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2014 Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from another oil price shock The escalation of violence in Iraq over the past week or so has led to concerns that unrest in the Middle East might trigger another spike in oil prices. As it happens, the impact on world oil markets... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisis The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Today's PMI reading is the latest sign that downwards pressure on the manufacturing sector has eased as a result of the government's targeted measures, which have helped to support domestic demand. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP growth steady in Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth stabilised in Q2 and on this basis we expect official GDP growth to come in close to Q1’s 7.4% y/y. The weakness in real estate is... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the PBOC up to? Tracking the stance of the People’s Bank has become more difficult as it has brought a large number of policy tools into play. But the consistent goal appears to be to stabilise credit growth. 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can the BRICs regain their vigour? Four charts to watch The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the past couple of years has been driven in large part by weakness in the four largest emerging economies, the BRICs. Much of this weakness has, in turn, been caused... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial output, fixed investment and retail sales (May.) Today's output and spending data from China suggest that policymakers are being reasonably successful so far at fine-tuning policy in order to stabilise growth. We suspect that downward pressures from... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Policymakers’ efforts to channel bank lending to chosen parts of the economy are helping to support loan growth, even as controls on shadow banking continue to bite. Although this has helped to... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May.) Today's inflation data confirm our view that broader price pressures are stable and that concerns about deflation, sparked by a short-lived fall in headline inflation in April, were overplayed. 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports strengthen a touch, manufacturers outperform Emerging Market (EM) export growth picked up a little in April and the rebound in Chinese exports last month suggests that it has since strengthened further. In aggregate, EM export growth is still... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
