China Economics Update Q2 growth edges up on policy fine-tuning Economic activity appears to have picked up in June, resulting in stronger-than-expected Q2 growth. This should assuage hard landing fears and leave policymakers feeling vindicated in their decision... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising EM trade surplus a result of weaker growth The emerging market-wide trade surplus rose to a record high in US dollar terms in May. But while this would, at first sight, appear to be a positive development, much of the adjustment appears to be... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) The rebound in credit growth last month has more to do with a weak base for comparison due to the cash crunch last year, than with the current policy stance. Meanwhile, with upwards pressure on the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the copper price remain on the downside, for now We expect renewed weakness in the copper price later this year as mine supply picks up and Chinese copper imports continue to fall due to waning demand from financing deals. However, we expect prices... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private sector debt remains a concern in some EMs The legacy of the last decade’s sharp rise in private sector debt has kept credit conditions tight and domestic demand weak across a number of EMs over the past few years. And while some of them have... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s industrial metals imports likely to fall further China’s imports of key commodities were weak in June reflecting the slowdown in the property sector as well as lower import activity related to financing deals. In our view, these factors are likely... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Despite an increase in the headline growth rate, June’s exports were disappointing, perhaps signalling that global demand at the end of the second quarter was not as healthy as had been hoped. China’s... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation edged down in June on the back of a slight easing in food inflation. This fall should prove short-lived given that pork prices look set to pick-up in coming months. More... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Inflation looks to have stabilised for now but pork prices are likely to drive it higherduring the second half of the year. Producer price inflation is also set to pick up incoming months on the back... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is China’s steel industry set to shrink, at last? The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further rebound in EM manufacturing The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further slowdown likely but no hard landing Targeted policy intervention has helped shore up activity recently but China’s economy will face continued headwinds from a slowing property sector and efforts to rein in credit in the years ahead... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis fears fade but rebound remains elusive Fears of an EM-wide crisis have receded and the outlook for smaller EM manufacturers is brightening. But structural problems will continue to hold back the largest emerging economies even if, as seems... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks remain despite recent calm Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in the past quarter as fears about the impact of Fed tapering and a hard landing in China have eased. But while the latest Capital Economics Risk... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Today's PMIs suggest that conditions in the manufacturing sector have continued to hold up reasonably well, helped by the government's targeted support measures along with healthy external demand... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth in the BRICs remains disappointing Our Tracker suggests that GDP in the emerging world, in aggregate, has expanded by around 4.5% y/y in recent months which is in line with Q1’s outturn. Some of the more open EM economies have gathered... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
