China Economics Focus Is the level of borrowing costs in China a problem? Cuts to benchmark interest rates could end up doing more harm than good to China’s economy. Policymakers worried about elevated financing costs in the corporate sector would do better to focus on... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The latest PMI surveys confirm that the recovery in manufacturing activity has continued to accelerate going into Q3. That said, policymakers are seemingly comfortable with current growth rates and... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor China rebound leaves other BRICs lagging behind Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has accelerated a touch in recent months. Much of the pick-up has been due to a turnaround in Asia, including China. But while the outlook for China seems to... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai equities on a tear Equities in China have soared in recent days as sentiment about the economy’s prospects has warmed. But we don’t expect the rally to be sustained. 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Balance of Payments (Q2) China’s balance of payments data for Q2 show substantial outflows on the financial account. But this does not mean that capital has been fleeing the country. Instead it is a reflection of the fact... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that there was a strong rebound in economic growth at the end of Q2. The property sector remains a drag, but this was more than offset by relatively broad-based... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM demographic challenge not the disaster that many expect The contribution that favourable demographics have made to emerging market growth over the past couple of decades is often overplayed. In reality, the growth of working age populations has played only... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs to provide only limited support to commodity prices Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today's PMI reading suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector have continued to improve going into Q3 on the back of targeted support measures and warming external demand. That said... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mixed ownership no guarantee of stronger performance Six state-owned firms were named last week to take part in pilot reforms intended to boost state sector performance, partly by encouraging private investment. The experiment could have far-reaching... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is China behind the decline in US Treasury yields? The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in the BRIC economies Growth in the emerging world’s largest economies, the BRICs, appears to have stabilised afterslowing at the start of the year. The official data from China show GDP growthedging up in Q2 on the back... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set to take next step towards deposit rate liberalisation Policymakers appear poised to take a key step in the process of interest rate liberalisation, which is itself an important test of their ability and desire to push through difficult reforms. 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four questions about the BRICS Bank and swap deal After years of discussion, the five BRICS nations yesterday agreed to establish a development bank and a framework of currency swaps, dubbed the “Contingency Reserve Arrangement” (CRA). In this Update... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
