China Economics Update Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shift The general impression seems to be that the latest liquidity injections by the People’s Bank are a form of stealth stimulus. But these are in fact run-of-the-mill operations designed to smooth... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China eating Asia’s lunch? Weak Chinese demand for exports from Emerging Asia in recent months has led some commentators to worry that China’s move up the value chain is having unwelcome knock-on effects for the rest of the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Healthy labour market keeping policymakers calm Premier Li Keqiang’s comments last week prioritising reform over stimulus have taken on added significance in the light of the weekend’s weak activity data. Policymakers are aware that efforts to... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Broad credit growth continued to slow in August. However, a rebound in net new bank loans last month suggests that concerns about weak demand for credit, following a collapse in lending in July, were... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How important is urbanisation for long-run growth? The role of urbanisation in supporting growth in emerging markets is often overplayed. Although urbanisation can play an important role in supporting industrialisation, it doesn’t in itself drive... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How far can iron ore prices fall? Sluggish Chinese demand amid a ramp up in supply, notably from Australia, has sent iron ore pricesinto freefall. Higher-cost producers will eventually be forced out of the market and prices will at... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Today's inflation data suggest that price pressures remain subdued due to falling commodity prices and a relatively neutral monetary policy stance. As a result, even though pork prices and utility... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Productivity has not gone into reverse We are sceptical of recent claims that productivity across China’s economy has started to fall. If it were true, we’d be slashing our medium-term growth forecasts. But the reality is not so dire. 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal prices to fall further as environmental regulations bite The recent sharp falls in imports of coal by China and consumption of coal in the US are just the latest evidence that environmental measures enacted over the last year have begun to reduce demand in... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) After another month of stable inflation in August, we expect rising pork prices and utility price reforms to push inflation higher over the coming quarters. But easing pressure on housing costs, weak... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Stronger-than-expected export growth for August points to healthy foreign demand. In contrast, weaker-than-expected import growth suggests that cooling investment, particularly in the property sector... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Property price bubbles a key risk There are signs property prices are coming off the boil in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. That said, prices in these three economies still look significantly overvalued, and a slump in prices... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
