Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Investors face up to “new norm” for EM growth Investors have started to face up to the prospect that previous hopes of a significant rebound in EM growth are likely to be disappointed. But while the new normal for EM growth is going to be much... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today's official PMI suggests that while conditions have held up better than many had expected on the back of healthy foreign demand, the cooling property sector has continued to weigh on economic... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Protests overshadow equity opening in Hong Kong October’s launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has been eagerly awaited since it was announced earlier in the year. Now it risks being overshadowed by political unrest that raises... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What next for Hong Kong? With thousands of pro-democracy protestors blockading the streets of Hong Kong’s main business district, the territory’s political crisis is showing no sign of dying down. The economy, which is... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would policy change under a new PBOC governor? People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is once again rumoured to be on the verge of being replaced. We are sceptical of suggestions that Mr Zhou has lost out in a power struggle. A new governor might... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Prospects for EM currencies differ despite broad sell-off The sell-off in emerging market currencies so far this month has been broad-based, but we expect investors to become more selective soon. We think a number of currencies will probably rebound, while... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling commodity prices to help keep EM inflation subdued Recent falls in the prices of oil and a number of agricultural commodities add to the reasons to expect EM inflation to stay muted over the coming months. But while in aggregate we think that... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities demand unlikely to get a boost anytime soon The increase in the flash PMI for China has helped to assuage fears about a hard landing. However, the index is still low by historical standards and the fall in the euro-zone’s flash PMI highlights... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today's PMI reading suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector have held up better than expected recently on the back of healthy export demand. That said, the economy still faces significant... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor China's growth slowing to five-year low in Q3 August may not have been as weak as it initially looked but the China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy has nonetheless slowed this quarter, with continued weakness in real estate and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2014 Perhaps the most notable development in today’s quarterly surveys from the People’s Bank is the sharp drop in reported loan demand but there are some more positive developments too. Firms report... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit growth in Emerging Asia still unsustainable We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. While there are encouraging signs that... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More targeted support for small firms Although liquidity operations by the PBOC have received the most attention this week, further measures to support small firms that were announced by the State Council on Wednesday are arguably more... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read