Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Although the PMIs diverged in October, the breakdown of both is consistent with cooling domestic demand and a further slowdown in growth going into Q4. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government support for property ignites equity rally Government promises of support for the property sector triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of October. Meanwhile, appreciation expectations appear to be returning for the... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bank lending under pressure from new deposit rules New rules requiring banks to ensure that deposits at the end of each month deviate by no more than 3% from the monthly average are a new headwind for China’s economy. The rules are designed to prevent... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports as well as exports look suspicious Most of the headlines questioning China’s September trade data have focused on anomalies on the export side. But China’s imports also seem to have been distorted, which may be a sign that firms are... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor China’s growth remains on a downward path Although activity in industry rebounded in September, our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the wider economy continued to slow last month. 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Today's PMI reading supports our view that the labour market remains healthy. That said, it also suggests that cooling domestic demand is still putting downward pressure on growth going into Q4. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q3 GDP & September Activity Data Today's data suggest that slowing investment, particularly in the property sector, continues to put downwards pressure on growth. That said, healthy consumption growth and strong foreign demand mean... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft efforts It is tempting to dismiss the Communist Party’s talk of boosting the “rule of law” in China as simply hot air. Beneath the rhetoric though, the focus is on institutionalising the ongoing anti... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Sep.) & FX reserves (Q3) Credit growth slowed further last month, on the back of continued efforts by policymakers to address credit risks. Meanwhile, the fall in China's FX reserves reflects a stronger dollar, not FX sales... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
