Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, on the back of big increases in consumption and exports. Although growth will probably weaken again in Q4... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Broad credit growth continued to slow in October, supporting our view that, despite recent liquidity injections, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is seeking to keep credit growth on a downward trajectory. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Fixed investment, industrial output, retail sales (Oct.) Today's activity and spending data have brought further evidence that Q4 has got off to a slow start. But with President Xi sounding relaxed about the prospect of a drop to 7% GDP growth, a shift in... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme? The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has the potential to lead to a huge increase in capital flows both into and out of China. But it will start slowly and be scaled up only gradually. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some brighter signs in China’s trade data There were signs of a pick-up in copper imports in China’s October trade data, while iron ore and crude oil imports were still up strongly in year-on-year terms. However, exports of some refined raw... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update New subsidy to slow cotton market adjustment in China A new subsidy programme for Chinese cotton producers outside of Xinjiang province is unlikely to have a major impact on the market and we still expect the global price of cotton to fall. Nevertheless... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Oct.) Over-invoicing continues to distort both China's exports and its imports, but the underlying picture is of healthy foreign demand and subdued demand at home. Meanwhile, the inflation data have... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What are China’s copper demand indicators saying? Concerns about demand, notably from China, have been one of the key factors cited by commentators to justify recent copper price falls. However, not all indicators of demand are flashing red. As such... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China Watch - Labour market remaining resilient despite property gloom The outlook for China’s economy and for economic policy will be determined by what happens to the property sector and to employment. Despite the latest increase in support for property, the outlook... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
