China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Today's PMI readings suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to face headwinds. And while it is too early to look for the impact of last month's rate cut in today's data, it seems unlikely... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Limited impact from Chinese rate cut Financial markets in Emerging Asia have on the whole had a fairly quiet month despite the recent Chinese rate cut and the expansion of the Bank of Japan’s programme of quantitative easing. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities surge following rate cut The recent benchmark rate cut triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of November. Meanwhile, although trading volumes in the newly-launched Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in smaller EMs Our GDP Tracker suggests that having sunk to a five-year low in August, EM growth edged up a little in September. The pick-up appears to have been driven by smaller EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What impact will the rate cut have, and what happens next? We foresee two more cuts in China's benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year but not the sizeable acceleration in credit that would be needed for a substantial pick-up in GDP growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese rate cuts to have limited impact on metals demand Industrial metals prices rallied on the news of Chinese interest rate cuts. However, while the central bank’s move suggests the authorities will continue with targeted stimulus measures, the cuts... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China switches tack with rate cut boost for larger firms China’s rate cuts will ease financing strains, particularly for large firms, but the impact on GDP growth is likely to be small. There is absolutely no reason to believe that concerns over the level... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that manufacturing activity has continued to cool, but it also provided some hope that downward pressure on domestic demand has eased up so far in the fourth quarter. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Respite in property unlikely to last Although activity in industry cooled further in October, our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in the wider economy was stable last month, thanks in part to a respite in the downward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia-China FTA will help rebalance Australia’s economy Australia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China yesterday that will give its exporters a surprising amount of access to China’s market. The biggest opportunities lie in the agriculture and... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
