China Economics Update Equity boom propping up GDP growth, for now The frenetic opening of trading accounts and a surge in equity turnover have produced a boom for brokerages that appears to have added more than half a percentage point to China’s GDP growth last... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will curb on visitors hurt Hong Kong’s economy? New restrictions on the number of visits mainland residents can make to Hong Kong will affect only a small proportion of visitors to the territory. The retail sector will be put under further pressure... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Four and a half reasons not to worry about China’s slowdown The relative weakness of China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data has reinforced concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. But in contrast to the consensus, we remain... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headwinds to continue weighing on growth in 2015 There was another strong bout of seasonal disruption in the monthly data released today, but confirmation too that key trends from last year have continued into 2015. The property sector remains a... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1 Credit issuance was unusually weak in March but, with the late Chinese New Year break still casting a shadow, we wouldn’t read too much into this. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import volumes bounce back in March China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, admittedly from a low base in February. However, lower prices appear to be encouraging purchases and we expect volumes to remain higher in Q2. 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) We suspect that the slump in China’s exports last month was the result of seasonal disruption to output rather than weakness in demand. On the import side, the headline figures still look awful, but... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation held steady in March but we expect a drop in food price inflation to pull it lower over the coming months. Although inflation is likely to remain in positive territory, a... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outbound FDI won't eclipse inward FDI any time soon Contrary to what is widely believed, China should continue to attract positive net foreign direct investment inflows for the foreseeable future, which should help spur further renminbi appreciation. 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in inflation likely to reverse soon After edging up in March, inflation is set to ease again – although remain positive – in coming months before rebounding in the second half of the year. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still have plenty of ammunition Growth looks likely to have slowed sharply in Q1, in spite of recent cuts to the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. This has raised concerns that policymakers are now struggling to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
