Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown shows no sign of abating The slowdown across emerging markets is showing no sign of easing, with our latest GDP Tracker suggesting that growth is now running at 3.7% y/y – its lowest rate since September 2009. Much of the... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of a grim Q1 First quarter GDP data that have so far been released by EMs have painted a pretty grim picture. In this Update we outline the three key themes that have emerged. 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation has troughed The big drag on EM inflation from the drop in commodity prices over the second half of last year will ease over the coming months. With inflation set to rise in most EMs over the second half of this... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The devil is in the detail of Chinese trade China’s detailed trade data for April paint a broadly positive picture of industrial metals demand. Meanwhile, the export surge associated with the Qingdao port scandal, as stocks were moved into more... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus China and the SDR: a storm in a basket It is only a matter of time before China passes another milestone as the renminbi is added to the basket of currencies which determine the value of the IMF’s special drawing right. However, we doubt... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property to remain a drag despite stronger sales Growth in property sales returned to positive territory for the first time in over ayear last month, helped by lower mortgage rates and a loosening of purchasecontrols. But hopes that this marks the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) China’s flash PMI remains subdued but the index rose for the first time since February, suggesting that recent policy stimulus could be starting to have an effect. Meanwhile, the uptick in the euro... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May.) China’s flash PMI remains subdued. Nonetheless, the index's first improvement since February suggests that policymakers' efforts to shore up activity may finally be having the intended effect. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices a challenge for key frontier markets Despite a recent rebound, low oil prices are posing a challenge for many frontier markets. Low oilprices were one factor that led the IMF to cut its 2015 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, andwe... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor The worst may be over Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms that growth weakened further last month. But with the recent step-up in policy support likely to shore up economic activity in coming months this could be about... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports raise questions over global demand Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in China’s... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal policy to be more supportive in coming quarters Policymakers are moving to ensure that funding difficulties don’t disrupt local government spending plans. This doesn’t constitute an about-turn in efforts to restrict off-budget borrowing, as some... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy remained subdued in Q1, although growth picked up slightly compared to the previous quarter. We expect growth to stage a stronger recovery over coming quarters, supported by a... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deposit rate liberalisation still on track Stories that the PBOC banned banks from increasing deposit rates when it raised the deposit rate ceiling at the weekend are another sign of policymakers’ ambivalence towards the use of market-oriented... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
