EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government debt swap doubled Today’s doubling of the quota for local government debt swaps indicates that the central government believes the programme has so far been a success, even if banks have only been buying the new bonds... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May.) Today's data support our view that, the usual volatility in food inflation aside, price pressures are rising and that deflation concerns are overplayed. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s import volumes slip in May China’s commodity import volumes slipped in May but we think this was a temporary dip related to the surge in prices early in the month. We continue to expect industrial metal import demand to rebound... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May.) Foreign demand still looks subdued, despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in export growth. Meanwhile, a fall in commodity import volumes disappoints hopes that recent policy support measures... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures on the rise A seasonal slide in vegetable prices that should prove short-lived may have pulled inflation down in May. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to have picked up. We expect... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More evidence GDP growth overstated Flaws in how China’s GDP data are calculated exaggerated both the downward pressure on prices in the first quarter and the rate at which the economy is growing. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May.) Today's PMI readings suggest that although external demand remains weak, an uptick in domestic demand – likely the result of recent policy support – is now helping to ease downward pressure on growth... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Anaemic Chinese import growth weighs on prices China’s trade data for April go some way to explaining the generally weak tone of agricultural commodities prices. For the most part, import volumes were lower in year-on-year terms, in some cases... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update End of bull market in Chinese equities would help gold The lure of a soaring stock market has surely dampened Chinese investors’ demand for gold. Correspondingly, even though we are not predicting an imminent crash, the precious metal should benefit when... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities on a rollercoaster This month ended with a crash on China’s stock markets. But if the equity bubble of 2007 is any guide, this may not be the end of the speculative rally. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers pushing on a string? The failure of policy loosening over the past six months to stimulate an economic rebound has led some to suggest that elevated real interest rates or oppressive debt burdens are hobbling corporate... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Apr.) A fall in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in April has been more than offset by higher imports of the metal by India. Hence, we believe fears of a slowdown in demand from key emerging... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Which EM currencies are misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
