Emerging Markets Economics Update Slump in BRICs manufacturing bottoming out June’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the slump in manufacturing across the BRIC economies may be bottoming out. It’s a mixed picture across smaller EMs, with those in Central Europe doing well, but... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Today's PMI readings were slightly weaker than expected but do not change the general picture, which is that growth is recovering on the back of both an improvement in external demand and a policy... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Echoes of 2007 China’s equity markets ended a nerve-shredding month with a large bounce in the final hours of trading today. There are echoes of the bubble in 2007 and 2008 when prices swung wildly in both... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack China still the key risk for Lat Am While many parts of the emerging and developed world are sweating over the potential fallout from a looming Greek exit from the Euro-zone, a deeper downturn in China remains the key external risk for... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth still slowing, but non-BRICs are picking up EM growth continues to slow and, according to our GDP Tracker, is now at its weakest pace in almost sixyears. However, the slowdown has almost entirely been driven by further weakness in the BRICs... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” regime Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls for emerging markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular publications on the... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Weakness in PGM prices should prove temporary Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What can policymakers do now? The failure of Saturday’s policy moves to lift equity prices for more than a few minutes at the start of trading today has focused attention on what else policymakers might do to support the markets... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic downside from equity collapse underappreciated A “best case” scenario is that a continued equity collapse would knock a percentage point off China’s GDP growth simply by cooling currently overheated financial sector activity. But the rapid... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks building in China, Venezuela in crisis The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Waiting for zinc ... Tightening supply, as a number of large mines close, is often cited as a key reason why investors and analysts have been positive on the outlook for zinc prices. However, the expected market tightness... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap European frontiers vulnerable to mounting threat of “Grexit” The growing threat of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has cast a shadow over the outlook for European frontier markets. Admittedly, the reaction in financial markets has so far been muted. And the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will China’s rebalancing affect consumption patterns? In the short to medium term, rising incomes will remain the key driver of changing dietary patterns in China, particularly for meat demand. However, a shift towards consumption-led growth and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lending A new proposal to do away with the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t relax the primary constraints on bank lending. It should, however, mean that a greater share of lending is directed towards smaller and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
