Commodities Update China’s oil imports surge in June China’s commodity import volumes were generally strong in June, although copper imports fell to a four-month low. We think government stimulus and infrastructure spending will boost demand for... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) The June trade data are relatively upbeat. A further recovery in external demand pushed up export growth to a four-month high. Meanwhile, although the fall in commodity prices late last year has kept... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s shifting relationship with China The collapse in China’s stock market has rekindled fears over the outlook for its economy and led to renewed concerns about the spillovers to other EMs, including those in Latin America. As it happens... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why stock market gyrations don’t affect consumption With only a small and relatively wealthy portion of Chinese households exposed to the stock market, we aren’t particularly concerned about the impact of recent big falls in equity prices on... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Although the recent softening in global commodity prices helped pull down producer price inflation last month, today’s data still suggest that domestic price pressures are rising and that deflation... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Falling equities in China unlikely to trigger a rout elsewhere A 5% fall in the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index since mid-June has primarily been driven by a 15% slump in the MSCI China Index, which in turn can be attributed to the collapse in share prices on... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in Chinese equities not a big problem for world economy Beyond its impact on investor sentiment, which we expect to be temporary, the slump in China’s equity market is unlikely to have much effect on the global economy. Indeed, we doubt that it will even... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up We expect inflation to have risen in June and for further increases in months ahead to quash any lingering concerns over deflation. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership rattled but not reversing course on reform The response to the equity market collapse shows that officials have been rattled by a clear policy failure. But it doesn’t signal an about-turn on reform. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's equity gyrations not such a big deal for commodities The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China puts faith in market meddling China’s leadership has doubled down on its efforts to prop up equity prices because it believes that its own credibility is now coupled to continued gains on the markets. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for gold? Gold faces important challenges as China rebalances its economy. Higher consumer spending should be positive for jewellery demand. A corresponding reduction in savings might reduce demand for gold as... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in sales won’t spark property revival Strong sales and rebounding prices have raised hopes that China’s property sector is on the cusp of a turnaround. But those expecting a return to the rapid rates of construction growth seen over the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Grains aside, commodities remain in the doldrums The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supply fears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
