Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today's PMI reading suggests that recent improvements in economic momentum may have been derailed this month by weaker foreign demand. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade volume falls again World trade volumes fell sharply in May – the fourth monthly fall during the first five months of the year. This leaves trade growth lagging well behind the growth of GDP. Most of the slowdown has... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s corn and wheat imports surge in June China’s imports of agricultural commodities were generally strong in June, suggesting a pick up in underlying demand. However, opportunistic buying due to lower prices is likely to have been a factor... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China's refined nickel imports finally take off Prices may be plumbing new lows, but the detailed Chinese trade data are pointing to some positive trends in metal demand. In particular, the surge in nickel imports in June suggests that the domestic... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun. 15) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global aluminium production slipped by less than 1% m/m in June, but still grew by over 10% y/y in the first half. However, output in the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs labour market losing some momentum The equity market has received all the attention recently but evidence that the labour market is coming off the boil arguably matters more to China’s economy. There was a big fall in the ratio of job... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy support to counter growth risks from property, equities While the support to growth last quarter from surging equity turnover and rebounding property sales will fade before long, we think that policy support will help limit the downside risks to growth. 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Longstanding error still exaggerating GDP growth China’s statistics bureau responded today to our argument that glitches in the way it calculates GDP have caused it to overstate growth in recent quarters. It has not laid our doubts to rest. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth stabilises on brokerage boom, policy easing Q2’s stronger-than-consensus GDP growth partly reflects an unsustainable surge in financial sector activity that will prove short-lived. Even so, there are plenty of positive signs on broader economic... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Still stuck in a rut The slowdown in EM growth should bottom out over the second half of this year, but we don’t foresee a significant rebound in 2016-17. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
