Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not the Asian Financial Crisis MK2 The recent depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the dollar has left both currencies at levels not seen since 1998, but suggestions that this signals a re-run of the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Another look at Asia’s exposure to China The last week has been dominated by concerns that the People’s Bank of China was embarking on a competitive devaluation of the renminbi and fears that the Chinese economy might be heading for a “hard... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed last quarter, dragged down by a fall services exports and subdued consumer spending. Looking ahead, we expect growth to remain weak in the coming quarters as exports... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on the impact of China’s exchange rate shift China’s move to shore up the renminbi suggests that the exchange rate policy changes it announced earlier this week will have little lasting impact on the world economy. Nor will the small step... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of EM market performance in previous RMB falls There have only been three previous occasions in the last decade when the renminbi has depreciated to any meaningful extent against the dollar. On two of those occasions the performance of EM markets... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RMB set to stabilise as PBOC counters devaluation claims Today’s PBOC press conference supports our view that the fall in the renminbi as a result of the shift to a new reference rate mechanism was a one-off and not an attempt to engineer a large scale... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will events in China force the Fed to delay US rate lift-off? The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s ‘‘devaluation’’ means for commodity prices All else equal, a weaker renminbi means that US dollar-denominated commodities will be more expensive in local currency terms for Chinese buyers. However, with the renminbi unlikely to go into... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) July’s weaker-than-expected activity and spending data will undoubtedly add to speculation that policymakers are trying to engineer a sustained devaluation of the renminbi in order to shore up growth... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China is not declaring a “currency war” A second downward adjustment to the renminbi reference rate today suggests that policymakers are now more willing to give in to market forces than we had previously thought. That said, we still think... 12th August 2015 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Spillovers to EMs from renminbi “devaluation” limited The decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate for the renminbi has generated plenty of headlines about spillovers to other EMs. In practice, however, we think that... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi “devaluation” may not be such a big deal Today’s reduction in the daily reference rate for the renminbi has been widely interpreted as the first of many moves whose main purpose is to regain competiveness by devaluing the Chinese currency... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Talk of major policy shift toward RMB devaluation overblown By setting a lower mid-point for the renminbi’s trading band the People’s Bank has sparked speculation that it is embarking on a competitive devaluation of the currency in order to shore up exports... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul) The recent rebound in broad credit growth accelerated last month. With the impact of looser monetary policy still feeding through, we see further upside for credit growth in the months ahead which... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports hint at policy-driven pick-up in demand Yesterday's inflation data suggest domestic price pressures remained broadly stablelast month. Meanwhile, although exports were subdued, policy easing appears to have supported commodity import... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
