Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The gyrations in equity and commodity markets have raised expectations that global monetary policy will remain looser for longer than previously expected, but we think that the fallout will actually... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No sign of crisis in latest activity data After the drama of the past few days, our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) tells a relatively reassuring story about the state of China’s economy. 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers put focus on supporting economy, not market With the government’s efforts to prop up equity prices through direct purchases in tatters, policymakers have changed tack with a simultaneous cut to benchmark interest rates and the required reserve... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economic outlook doesn’t point to a bear market in US equities A slump of around 10% in the S&P 500 since 10th August is unlikely to mark the start of a bear market, which typically only occur in, and around, recessions. We are sticking with our forecast that the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Panic about China is overblown Investors are over reacting about economic risks in China. The collapse of the equity bubble tells us next to nothing about the state of China’s economy. In fact, recent data have been more positive... 24th August 2015 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why this is not a re-run of previous EM crises An 8.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index has sent shockwaves through EM equity markets, but we continue to think that there are few parallels between what is happening now and previous crises... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China panic spreads The negative sentiment prompted by the slide in the renminbi has been compounded by further weakness in Chinese equities and another soft reading of the country’s manufacturing PMI. What’s more... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “National Team” strategy looking tarnished Sliding share prices over the course of the past week have exposed the limits of the government’s interventions to support the market. Indeed, in going to such lengths to save the market, the... 21st August 2015 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Will China become a net-exporter of coal? The depreciation of the Chinese currency alongwith declining consumption and imports of coalhave raised the question of whether China,currently the world’s largest importer of coal, could soon switch... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The weak manufacturing PMI reading from China may have been distorted bytemporary factors and the manufacturing sector has yet to feel the full benefit of policyeasing. Nonetheless, today's Chinese... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Today’s weaker-than-expected PMI will add to mounting concerns over Chinese growth. Nonetheless, we continue to believe that sentiment is currently overly downbeat and that policy support will limit... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China and the SDR: fuss about nothing Reports that the IMF has decided not to add the renminbi to the SDR basket until September 2016 at the earliest miss two more important points. First, China’s currency may not be added to the basket... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How at risk are equities in Japan to events in emerging Asia? Although the yen has stayed weak against the US dollar, it has appreciated in trade-weighted terms in response to a slump in some emerging Asian currencies. Still, the yen’s real effective exchange... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tianjin disaster to hit August data, but impact transitory Economic activity in Tianjin has yet to return to normal several days after the devastating explosions there. The city is a major industrial centre and the world’s tenth largest port. While most of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why hasn’t China’s new resource tax led to higher REE prices? The costs of rare earth elements (REEs) have continued to fall despite China’s new tax regime. However, we think that it is only a matter of time before higher taxes and positive demandfundamentals... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
