China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Stronger-than-expected export data hint at warming foreign demand. Meanwhile, we aren’t as concerned about domestic demand as some given that the contraction in imports values continues to mostly... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows eased last month, allowing the People’s Bank to reduce its currency intervention. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How much should we worry about a slump in China? The recent turbulence in equity markets has highlighted how vulnerable global investor sentiment is to developments in China, but the risks to the world economy are smaller than many assume. Although... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What do the new COFER data tell us about China’s reserves? China appears to hold a larger than average share of its fx reserves in US dollars, UK pounds and Australian dollars at the expense of euros and the Japanese yen. This is the conclusion we have... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s rebalancing on demand for commodities The move away from commodity-intensive investment-led growth in China towards a more consumer-driven economy is often cited as sounding the death knell for commodities demand. However, we would argue... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack China concerns continue to weigh on prices Commodity prices fell again in September on concerns about a hard landing in China despite many leading indicators of the Chinese economy, including credit growth and fiscal spending, suggesting that... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat sentiment is still weighing on the PMIs, but today's better-than-expected readings still support our view that the economy is holding up better than many think. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2015 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China show a marked deterioration in sentiment about the economy although measures of business profits and orders and of the labour market have... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity markets find their footing, but rebound unlikely After a tumultuous few months, Chinese stock markets stabilised ahead of a week-long recess for the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, market interest rates remain near record lows and the PBOC appears... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What would a hard landing in China mean for energy commodities? Fears about China’s economy have dominated headlines in recent months and have been the main factor behind the weakness in commodity prices. We have argued in previous publications that most of these... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will China fuel a recovery in German automobile shares? While the emissions scandal has been responsible for the recent plunge in the share price of Volkswagen Group, the bigger picture is that the share prices of German car manufacturers have been sliding... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
