Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates to follow divergent paths The shift towards looser monetary policy in the emerging world earlier this year is over and, with the first rate hike in the US inching nearer, we think that many EMs are likely to tighten policy... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Abolition of one-child policy does not alter growth outlook The abolition of China’s controversial one-child policy may have grabbed plenty of headlines, but the economic impact of the move will be small. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth broadly stable at end of Q3 Our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that the economy is expanding markedly slower than the official figures claim. However, it remains consistent with our view that, after... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the service sector keeping China afloat? The answer to the question of whether China’s economy is sinking or swimming lies in its service sector. Some firms are thriving while others are struggling. Crucially though there is no evidence that... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus, plus a dash of reform The People’s Bank has delivered another jolt of stimulus in the form of cuts to both benchmark interest rates and the required reserve ratio. Deposit rates have also now been fully liberalised, an... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from China’s new Five-Year Plan? China’s leadership is likely to use its forthcoming Five-Year Plan to signal that it is not wavering on the need for structural reform. In fact, progress over the first three years of President Xi's... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Across-the-board strength in China’s metals imports The latest data on China’s metals imports suggest that recent fiscal and monetary stimulus, particularly infrastructure spending, are starting to feed through to stronger commodity demand. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector activity looks healthy despite data concerns Although we think the official GDP figures overstate growth, we believe that it is primarily industrial growth that is exaggerated and are more willing to take the strength in services at face value. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q3 GDP & September Activity Data The continued stability of the official GDP figures will further cement concerns over their credibility. For our part, while we do think the official figures are currently overstating growth by a wide... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices consolidate but tone generally positive Commodity prices have given back some of the previous week’s gains, due in part to some mixed signals from the US and Chinese economies. Nonetheless, the overall tone remains positive, helped by... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth accelerated to a nine-month high in September. Although this will add to concerns about the trajectory of Chinese debt levels, in the short-run it will nonetheless be supportive of... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Today's inflation data suggest that seasonal factors and volatile food prices aside, price pressures were basically stable last month. Nonetheless, we think it is only a matter of time before... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Stronger-than-expected export data hint at warming foreign demand. Meanwhile, we aren’t as concerned about domestic demand as some given that the contraction in imports values continues to mostly... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
