Commodities Update Grain & soybean mountains to depress prices further A sharp upward revision to Chinese corn stocks means that global end-year inventories are now expected to be at a record high. With a bloated global supply picture, we think further weakness in the... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial activity remained subdued last month but a pick-up in investment and strong retail sales suggest that the economy is still on track for a recovery over the coming quarters. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do China’s statistical revisions mean for coal prices? Whilst the latest revisions to China’s coal demand statistics raise more questions about the reliability of official data, we don’t think they change the big picture of falling coal demand and weaker... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Volatile food prices aside, price pressures were largely stable in October. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to edge higher in the coming months. But the window for further interest rate cuts will... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade data provide some grounds for optimism While the headlines have focused on the falls in export and import values, China’s trade data actually show commodity import volumes holding up well. What’s more, the record trade surplus will support... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising incomes remain key to China’s future food demand The end of China’s one-child policy raises a number of questions about future demand for agricultural commodities. However, we think that economic growth and rising incomes will remain the key... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Economic boost from closer China-Taiwan relationship has been small Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, will try to use his meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Singapore on Saturday to highlight the big improvement in cross-strait relations during his... 5th November 2015 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Deflation fears set to fade as broad price pressures rise Headline inflation is likely to have edged down in October due to a fall in food price inflation. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up. Looking ahead, we... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Signs of stabilisation in EM manufacturing October’s manufacturing PMIs, published today, contain early signs that the worst may finally be over for manufacturers across the EM world. The headline index improved both in key large EMs, such as... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the latest news from China mean for commodities? Recent positive developments in China – including signs of recovery in the equity market and in themanufacturing sector, renewed stability in the renminbi, and additional policy stimulus – support... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The latest PMI readings suggest that momentum in the manufacturing sector continued to improve last month, helped by a pick-up in foreign demand, and that service sector growth is still holding up... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attention shifts to bonds as equities recover Chinese equities broke a four-month losing streak in October. Meanwhile, a contraction in spreads for corporate bonds has sparked fears that a bubble is building. But there is little that looks likely... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Plenum fails to resolve tension between reform and growth goals A communique released after the conclusion of the Fifth Plenum provides a glimpse at the contents of the upcoming Five-Year Plan. It suggests that policymakers are not wavering on their reform... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rebound soon Although aggregate EM inflation slowed slightly in September, it is set to rise in the months ahead as the drag from last year’s slump in oil prices fades. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
