China Activity Monitor No rebound yet but growth still stable Our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained broadly stable last month. The rebound we are expecting has not yet materialised but there is no sign of the slump in growth that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Oct.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in October following increases in the three previous months. We expect total imports by China to rise in the coming months and imports by India to... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE trade data show demand still rising strongly China’s rare earth (REE) trade data show that exports were up 104% in the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier as the removal of export quotas and tariffs continued to... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover but not until next year US and Chinese steel prices have continued to fall due to overcapacity and strong exports from China. However, the US government has begun to impose anti-dumping duties and Chinese output should fall... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGMs imports weaken China’s imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) weakened in October but car production and the gold/platinum price ratio suggest that PGMs demand could soon improve. 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China worries continue to weigh on sentiment Prices of most industrial metals fell sharply this week, largely reflecting persistent investor concerns about the prospects for Chinese demand. The latest data showed LME money managers cutting their... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC shifting monetary policy framework The main significance of today’s announcement by the People’s Bank (PBOC) that it is cutting standing lending facility (SLF) interest rates is that it is experimenting with a new monetary policy... 19th November 2015 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion unlikely to boost renminbi demand The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets. The implicit endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the China data A deluge of Chinese data this week has coincided with a renewed slump in most metals prices. However, while the headlines have focused on the negatives, our interpretation of the data is that the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that EM capital outflows remained large in October, but they did at least decline from September. This should help to soothe concerns (overstated in our view) about an... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong is often seen as a bellwether for the state of global trade. As such, its latest GDP figures are relatively reassuring, with growth of goods exports picking up and GDP growth last quarter... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected October lending data are likely to add to doubts over the effectiveness of policy support. But overall credit growth is nonetheless continuing to accelerate, which is positive... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drag on EM exports from commodity collapse should ease soon EM exports remained weak in September as the drag from lower commodity prices continued to take its toll, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. However, as this drag fades and... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
