China Economics Update Economy slow but still stable despite market meltdown China’s equity markets continue to tumble, its currency is under unprecedented pressure and Chinese policymakers’ reputation for competence is looking ever more tarnished. Contrary to many of the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) China’s economy is beset with a host of problems, but inflation isn’t one. Consumer price inflation remains high enough to keep concerns about deflation at bay but low enough to give policymakers... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up The weekend’s inflation data should provide a respite from fears that China’s economy and financial markets are collapsing. We foresee another rise in consumer price inflation, which should further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long can the PBOC hold on? The willingness of the People’s Bank to sell over $100bn of foreign exchange reserves last month is a measure of its belief that a stable currency is in China’s interests and that current downward... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When might things improve? This week’s declines in China’s stock markets and currency raise a challenge to our relatively upbeat view of near-term prospects. But we continue to believe that growth is more likely to pick up than... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) While today's unofficial manufacturing PMI hints at some further weakness in the manufacturing sector, other indicators suggest that the economy as a whole held up reasonably well last month. 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Basket shift adds to depreciation pressure Strong hints from the People’s Bank that it is shifting the focus of its exchange rate management to a trade-weighted currency basket have intensified expectations of further renminbi declines. But... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges higher Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a small uptick in growth in November. With the leadership pledging additional policy support, a more robust turnaround seems likely soon. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another strong month for China’s metals imports Continuing the resurgence that started in September, China’s metals imports remained strong in November. We think this reflects higher consumption, encouraged by the fiscal and monetary stimulus... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stronger end to the year One implication of the US Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is that its concerns about China have receded. Certainly, the financial market turmoil that spilled over from China to the rest of the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Equities well placed to cope with further Fed tightening The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a major devaluation of the renminbi the next global shock? Late on Friday the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appeared to signal its intention to shift towards managing the renminbi against a currency basket rather than the US dollar. This has added to... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further signs that the economy is turning a corner China’s activity data for November provide further evidence that policy easing has helped to stabilise the economy. We continue to expect conditions to improve over the coming months. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
