China Economics Update Food prices surge ahead of Spring Festival celebrations Swings in food prices around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to jump in January. This pick-up may partly reverse this month but the bigger picture is that inflation still looks set to rise... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC still far from exhausting reserves The idea that the People’s Bank is running out of FX reserves doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. But the fact that many take it seriously is a sign of how far sentiment has swung against China. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Today’s trade figures make for gloomy reading. But things may not be as bad as they look. Commodity import volumes remained resilient and we suspect that at least some of the weakness in the data... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Credit risks rising but crisis not imminent A renewed acceleration in credit growth has brought concerns about a Chinese debt crisis back to the fore. Investors are right to be worried: dealing with the unsustainable build-up of debt is one of... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel slowdown to keep iron ore prices under pressure Iron ore prices have now recovered from December’s lows, close to our end-year forecast. We expect demand from China’s steel sector to disappoint this year, so wouldn’t be surprised to see prices dip... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI edges up January’s PMIs suggest that stabilisation in manufacturing across EMs continued at the start of the year. It’s particularly encouraging that conditions are no longer getting worse in Brazil and Russia... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would convince us we’re wrong on China? If the economy doesn’t show signs of a turnaround in coming months, we would have to downgrade our relatively upbeat view of China’s economic prospects. But we would need to see evidence of clear... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jan.) Today's manufacturing PMIs offer conflicting signals on the state of the economy going into 2016. On balance though, they suggest conditions remained subdued but broadly stable last month. 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tumultous start to 2016 Chinese equities have already lost nearly a quarter of their value so far this year. Meanwhile, the renminbi is once again tracking the dollar closely and skirting the weak edge of its apparent trade... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another bumper month (and year) for China’s REE exports In December, China’s rare earth (REE) exports were up by nearly 50% m/m – much higher than the 10% m/m average growth seen since the start of 2012. We believe the sharp increase was partly seasonal... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about property price bubbles? Hong Kong made international headlines last week after it was shown to have the least affordable property market in the world. But Hong Kong is not the only economy in the region where property prices... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s policy reform could spell further trouble for corn prices Recent reports suggest that the Chinese government will stop supporting domestic corn producers and let the market determine prices. If implemented, this could put further downward pressure on global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor An underwhelming end to a difficult year Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests growth slowed sharply at the start of 2015 and ended the year without seeing much of a recovery. That said, growth does appear to have stabilised rather than... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Solid Chinese metals imports defy negative sentiment December was the fourth consecutive month of strong Chinese metals imports. Although low prices have probably played a role, we think that robust consumption, driven by increased infrastructure... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
