Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) While gold imports by China plummeted in January, India’s buying remained strong. Looking forward, local price premiums suggest that the weakness in imports of gold is likely to have persisted through... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain subdued in 2016 Today’s GDP data confirmed that growth in Hong Kong stayed weak at the end of 2015. Although the government has unveiled a budget that should support growth this year, we don’t think it will be enough... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium consumption surge isn’t all it seems We think that recent reports suggesting China’s aluminium consumption surged last year and that the world market recorded a deficit don’t accurately reflect the fundamentals of the sector. The reality... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to fall as China plans further sales of stocks With the prospect of further sales of China’s vast state cotton stocks continuing to depress Chinese import demand, and US production rising, we think the price of cotton will drop further this year. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Outbound tourism continues to boom The number of Chinese tourists travelling abroad continues to rise rapidly. The main destination countries recorded an average increase in visitor arrivals from China of nearly a third last year... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another month of solid Chinese metals imports Imports of many industrial metals had surged in December, so somewhat slower growth in January came as no surprise. However, the bigger picture is that China’s imports of metal have remained strong... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish start to 2016 for Chinese agricultural import demand The detailed Chinese import data for January, released earlier today, indicate that import demand for agricultural commodities started the new year as it ended the last: weak. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China turn itself around? The inept response by China’s policymakers to the pressures of the last few months has rightly diminished confidence in their ability to handle the structural transition China faces in the years ahead... 17th February 2016 · 14 mins read
Commodities Update Lower soy oil premium to undermine China’s palm oil demand Despite a slump in Malaysian exports to China, overall Chinese palm oil demand has remained strong. However, the increased competitiveness of soy oil is likely to weigh on Chinese demand for imported... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s data point to a sharp acceleration in credit growth going into 2016. This is consistent with our view that growth is more likely to pick up than slow over the coming quarters. 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slow start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s overall commodity import volumes increased in January, but dipped for some key commodities. However, the seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday was probably behind some... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
