Global Markets Update People’s Bank of China now as important for markets as US Fed The March FOMC meeting is likely to conclude tomorrow with US interest rates left on hold but clear signals that hikes will resume soon. However, the timing will remain dependent both on future US... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing downturn set to weigh on growth in Hong Kong A plunge in home sales in February is the latest sign that Hong Kong’s overheated property market is now in the midst of a correction. We expect the housing market downturn to weigh on economic growth... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A stronger start to 2016 China’s latest activity data are more upbeat than first meets the eye and, on balance, suggest that economic momentum improved slightly in early 2016. We expect clearer signs of a recovery over the... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) China’s credit data show some extreme swings in the past two months which are the result of seasonal factors. But the underlying picture is that credit growth continues to accelerate, consistent with... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The jump in food inflation last month was seasonal and will prove short-lived. Price pressures elsewhere are likely to pick up in coming quarters but should stop short of becoming a constraint on... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The contraction in China’s exports deepened last month but this weakness should soon reverse as seasonal distortions fade. Meanwhile, relatively strong commodity import volumes ought to help assuage... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Life in the slow lane for Asia’s Tiger economies With productivity slowing and working age populations set to fall sharply, economic growth in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea is likely to average little more than 2% over the coming years... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Feb.) The smallest fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in four months suggests that capital outflows have eased, allowing the People’s Bank (PBOC) to slow the pace of its intervention. 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pushes up inflation A spike in food prices due to Chinese New Year looks likely to have caused inflation to pick up further in February. Once seasonal volatility has faded, we expect inflation to rise further this year... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) Today's PMIs suggest the economy lost some momentum last month but monetary policy easing by the People's Bank helps to limit the downside risks going forward. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall as sentiment remains fragile Stock markets in China slumped at the end of February, erasing nearly all of the gains they had made since the late-January low. Meanwhile, market interest rates have remained near record lows. The... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we be about capital outflows? All of the increase in capital outflows from China last year was the result of a reduction in China’s foreign liabilities, largely driven by firms paying down external debt. By contrast, purchases of... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut may signal capital outflow concerns abating The People’s Bank paused monetary loosening in recent weeks apparently on concerns that it would worsen capital outflows. The government stepped up fiscal support instead. Today’s cut to the required... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
