China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s trade data for March point to healthy growth in import volumes and add to growing evidence that the extreme gloom of a few weeks ago about the state of the domestic economy was misplaced. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Inflation remained elevated by recent standards last month. But this is arguably welcome given previous concerns over deflation risks. It also shouldn't prevent further monetary easing given that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Mar.) Receding fears over a sharp renminbi devaluation, along with favourable exchange rate movements, has helped end the recent string of declines in the value of China’s FX reserves. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation outlook appears benign After a seasonal spike in February, CPI inflation is likely to have to have fallen slightly last month. That said, inflation is likely to remain higher in the coming quarters than during most of the... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere The region’s original tiger economies, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea, are likely to struggle over the next couple of years against a backdrop of cooling credit growth, bursting property... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China data finally starting to turn? The jump in China’s two manufacturing PMIs in March suggest that policy stimulus is starting to work, although these reports alone only validate the earlier rally in industrial commodity prices rather... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Mar.) Today's better-than-expected PMI readings are consistent with our long-held view that policy easing will result in a cyclical upturn in China’s economy this year. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China attempting the impossible? China is targeting average annual growth of at least 6.5% over the coming five years. Such rapid growth, which would place China in the top 10% of what has been achieved historically by other... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound in margin lending boosts equities Stock markets in China rose in March, helped in part by a pick-up in margin lending. Meanwhile, there are signs that speculative downward pressures on the renminbi have eased. Market interest rates... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No rebound yet Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up at the start of 2016, but did not rebound as we had hoped. Nonetheless, we still think that a looser policy stance means the data is more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Shanghai Discord likely to weaken the euro again Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech later today will, of course, be keenly watched for hints on the outlook for US interest rates. However, there have already been signs that the markets are reassessing... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Capital outflows eased markedly last month as the pace of outbound investment by Chinese firms and investors cooled and foreigners pulled money out of mainland securities and renminbi deposits at a... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Too far, too fast for Chinese steel prices Chinese steel prices have surged recently but we think they are unlikely to hold on to their recent gains, as the underlying fundamentals remain weak. Although we expect growth in steel usage to turn... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Was there a “Shanghai Accord” to weaken the dollar? Speculation that G20 officials came to a tacit deal in Shanghai last month to end the “currency wars” that have boosted the US dollar fits a few of the facts, but overall makes no sense. Neither the... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack “Basically stable” renminbi slides lower Three months after the People’s Bank hinted that it would in future manage the renminbi relative to a currency basket rather than the dollar the jury is still out on what this means in practice... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
