China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Three lessons from China’s Two Sessions We think there are three key points for investors to note from today’s announcements at the National People’s Congress annual “Two Sessions”, where the country’s authorities, among other things, have... 5th March 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on. 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2024) The PMIs are consistent with activity holding steady in February, at least on paper. Although the survey readings remain below historical averages, this is likely distorted by sentiment effects --... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly New developer financing scheme shows promise The record 25bp cut to the 5Y Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for price mortgages, captured the headlines this week. But of greater importance to China's property sector is the new "real estate... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if... 23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: China trade data and the commodities demand outlook 1709798400 How strong was Chinese commodities demand at the start of 2024? What do official growth and spending targets signal about demand over the coming year?
Capital Daily How China’s rate cuts could play out in its markets We expect China’s bonds, currency and equities to rally over the rest of this year. 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
