Commodities Update China’s commodity import demand remains robust The sharp year-on-year decline in China’s import values in April has attracted some negative headlines but largely reflects distortions around the timing of the Lunar New Year and the slump in... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Trade growth was always likely to slow sharply in April after the seasonal surge in March. More positively, the contraction in both exports and imports wasn't as deep last month as it has been over... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picks up Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April to the highest since 2013 on the back of a further increase in pork prices. This may trigger concerns about a re-run of the pork-powered... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) Weaker-than-expected PMI readings for April don’t alter our relatively upbeat view on the short-run prospects for China’s economy. 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Corporate bond spreads widen Worries about a rise in defaults pushed corporate bond spreads up sharply in April. Meanwhile, the rally in China’s equity markets came to a halt. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the rebound continue? Stimulus that is already in the pipeline should sustain China’s economic recovery to near the end of the year. But policymakers are more aware than in the past of the damage that excessive stimulus... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q1 saw fastest growth since 2014 There was a broad-based turnaround in China’s economy last quarter. Worries about structural imbalances continue to cast a shadow over medium-term prospects but the outlook for the rest of this year... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) Gold imports by both China and India slumped in the first quarter. While imports have been undeniably weak so far in 2016, we expect buying to pick up later in the year in part due to the release of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When will pork price inflation peak? Pork price inflation in China surged in March, bringing echoes of 2007 and 2011, when spikes in pork prices caused headline consumer price inflation to jump above 6%. However, we think the upward... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows eased further last month on the back of fading concerns over the outlook for the renminbi and the recent tightening of controls on cross-border flows. 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A strong first quarter for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports remained high in March, reflecting the general optimism about a pick-up in demand. However, recent price rises and signs of stockpiling in China suggest that import growth may... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property revival shoring up growth, for now The cyclical recovery we had forecast for the start of 2016 appears to be underway. The turnaround has been built on the back of stronger activity in construction and real estate, supported by policy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q1 GDP, March Activity & Credit While GDP growth edged down in Q1, there are at least signs in the more recent data that momentum was improving going into this quarter. With monetary and fiscal conditions still being loosened and... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
