China Economics Update Service sector remains healthy China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q2 suggests that, finance apart, most sections of the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit is still expanding at a fast enough pace to provide support to the economy over the next couple of quarters. However, today's figures provided signs that the boost to credit growth from policy... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q2 GDP & June Activity While China is almost certainly expanding at a slower rate than its GDP data suggest, rapid state sector investment does appear to have kept growth broadly stable last quarter. Growth is more likely... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun 2016) China’s trade data for June point to further tepid growth in global demand and steady growth in imports in volume terms, helped by continued healthy growth in demand for commodities. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will China worries resurface? We expect China’s economy to slow further next year and the renminbi to continue depreciating. Nonetheless, the risk of a “hard landing” or large currency devaluation is low, so China is unlikely to... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation declined slightly last month, owing to a drop in food inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in coming months to be close to the rates seen so far this year... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add risks to inflation outlook Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in June on the back of a further decline in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in the second half of 2016 to be broadly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jun.) The surprise increase in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month could be the result of the People’s Bank marking to market the value of some reserve assets at the end of June, in... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions? The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP Our new measure of activity in China’s industrial sector, based on data on the output of hundreds of products, points to much slower growth than the closely-watched monthly industrial production data... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears With fears over the impact of the UK’s potential exit from the EU having faded, the focus of commodity markets may soon return to China’s economy and currency. The third successive monthly fall in... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs continue to disappoint. But given the recent resilience of the service sector and signs of strength in construction, we still aren’t overly concerned about the near-term outlook... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
