China Economics Update Food prices set to rise after floods Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in July, dragged down by a sharp drop in pork price inflation. But we expect inflation to edge up again in the coming months as severe flooding across... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC probably won’t cut rates or the RRR anytime soon Concerns about growing credit risks mean that the People’s Bank has good reason to hold off from another round of broad easing measures until clear signs of a renewed downturn emerge. 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May/Jun.) Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for June show that output of most industrial metals increased on the month. While the general rally in metals prices has offered incentives to boost... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency policy still lacks clarity one year on from RMB panic The global market panic following the step down in the renminbi fixing rate a year ago turned out to be overdone. The currency has since weakened further, but the large scale competitive devaluation... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A strong month for metals The prices of industrial and precious metals generally rose in July, despite a strengthening dollar for much of the month and only subdued economic data out of China. However, with investors more... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3 The sharp rise in the aggregate EM PMI in July suggests that after a brief pause in Q2, the recovery in EM industry resumed at the start of the third quarter. The improvement was driven largely by... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial metals steal the show A sharp downturn in oil prices dragged the broad commodities indices lower last month so that equities outperformed. That said, there were pockets of strength, with nearly all the industrial metals... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI data are consistent with our view that we should see a policy-driven pick-up in growth during the second half of this year. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in EM growth pauses Our GDP Tracker suggests that the recent recovery in EM growth paused in May. Nonetheless, preliminary data from June have been more encouraging and we expect EM growth to regain some momentum over... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up FX interventions Stock markets in China have had a volatile end to the month. Meanwhile, the PBOC appears to have stepped up its foreign currency interventions in order to prevent the renminbi from weakening further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) Gold imports by China and India fell sharply in June. However, local gold premiums point to somewhat stronger demand in July. Higher prices and temporary factors have played a role in the weakness in... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Stronger end to Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy signals that economic growth was stable in Q2 but it does appear to been accelerating at the end of the quarter, which supports the view that a pick-up is on... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (June) Global investors pulled money out of China’s financial markets at a slightly faster pace last month, perhaps due to renewed concerns about the outlook for the renminbi. But the largest rise in foreign... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher prices could dampen China’s metals imports June was another strong month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, volumes dipped, but this may have been a response to rising prices rather than a sign of weaker underlying demand. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output declined by 1.2% y/y. However, daily average production continues to recover in response to rising prices. 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No signs of major stress in labour market Recent data from China’s labour market corroborate evidence elsewhere that the economy has slowed since the start of 2015 but that it has avoided the collapse that many had feared. Migrant wage growth... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
