Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounced back in August After a slowdown in July, growth in China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in August. This was perhaps to be expected as July activity indicators were encouraging and the unofficial manufacturing... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) A pick-up in export growth points to some welcome improvement in external demand while the sharp recovery in import growth hints at stronger domestic demand. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fall in inflation will be short-lived Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen further in August, dragged down by a drop in food price inflation. But this will mask a continued pick-up in broader price pressures that is set to... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Aug.) Another drop in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves points to continued intervention by the People’s Bank. It also suggests that capital outflows remain sizeable and so that the renminbi... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: lots of talk but not much action Without a crisis to concentrate minds, G20 leaders meeting in Hangzhou are unlikely to make any major policy breakthroughs. The truth is that there is little appetite for coordinated policy action... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”? A number of voices have begun loosely using the term “liquidity trap” to argue that stronger credit growth in China has failed to provide a greater boost to output because firms are hoarding cash... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery pauses in August The EM manufacturing PMI dropped back in August, but we aren’t too concerned: the fall was relatively modest and the survey remains well above its level a few months ago. What’s more, there are... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China engaging in QE by the back door? A number of commentators have recently drawn attention to a rapid rise in lending by the People’s Bank to domestic banks and suggested that this represents a form of stealth credit expansion or... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Aug.) For the first time since November 2014, both manufacturing PMIs are now at or above 50, the line that – in theory at least – separates expansion from contraction. This ought to boost sentiment and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downturn in Hong Kong property market still has further to run Data released today show home prices in Hong Kong rising for a fourth straight month in July, raising hopes that the city’s property market correction may be over. But with interest rates set to rise... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Markets stable one year after panic The rally in China’s stock markets appears to be running out of steam. Meanwhile, further FX intervention by the PBOC has helped to keep the renminbi relatively stable against the US dollar, though it... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Heating up The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a further acceleration in growth last month. Recent unusually hot weather may have played a part in lifting the CAP by giving a short-lived... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jul.) China’s gold imports resumed their upward trend last month. In contrast, India’s demand remained subdued and this weakness probably has persisted through August. That said, we expect demand from India... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying Private investment in China may not have slowed quite as rapidly this year as the official figures suggest. Nonetheless, the downward trend remains worrying and is likely to weigh on future growth. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports dip in July China’s metals imports fell last month. This was not totally unexpected as the strength of imports earlier in the year had seemed at odds with relatively subdued underlying demand. Higher prices for... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why aren’t the markets more worried about the renminbi? China’s currency continues to weaken and has now fallen by around 7% on a trade-weighted basis this year. But while past episodes of renminbi (RMB) depreciation have rattled global markets, they have... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
