Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Resilient Chinese economy supports prices Industrial metals prices have profited in the last month from relatively upbeat economic data out of China as well as the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates just yet. We expect China’s economy... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mortgage surge not the key driver of stronger credit Growth in long-term loans to households, which consist mostly of mortgages, has jumped since early 2015 as the property market has heated up. In contrast, growth in other loans has slowed over the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports remained subdued in August August was another weak month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, lower supply and higher prices have weighed on import volumes. However, relatively soft underlying demand could have also... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Recovery continues The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated further last month to the fastest since 2014. 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jul./Aug.) Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for August paint a mixed picture of refining activity. While refined copper production was growing strongly, there were sharp downturns in tin and nickel... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug. 16) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output fell by 0.2% y/y in August. So far this year, output in the World ex China has risen, while China’s production... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China were stable last month after rising slightly in July. Global investors continued to pull money out of the country, but Chinese... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2016 Banks, firms and households have all become more upbeat on the economic outlook recently, according to the latest People’s Bank surveys released over the weekend. In particular, households appear more... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) A renewed pick-up in credit growth last month will add to the growing sense among investors that the near-term outlook for China’s economy is fairly bright. Credit growth is still likely to slow over... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.) Metals prices received a boost today as August activity data out of China surprised on the upside. There is now clear evidence that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year is... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Better-than-expected data out of China today raise hopes that policymakers’ efforts to reverse the slide in investment growth are seeing some success. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Inflation softened by more than expected last month but we think the decline will prove short-lived and doubt that it will spark further monetary easing by the People’s Bank. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
