China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Consumer price inflation rebounded last month but remains at a comfortable level. Meanwhile, producer price inflation returned to positive territory for the first time in over four years. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
Commodities Update China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well A renewed contraction in China’s import bill grabbed the headlines this morning, but China’s commodity import volumes were actually surprisingly strong last month. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Coming property price correction to weigh on growth The sharp rise in property prices over the past year, fuelled by a surge in mortgage lending, is clearly not sustainable and we expect a correction before long. This may not be the threat to financial... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A primer on China’s new monetary policy regime The People’s Bank has taken a major step towards a more orthodox approach to monetary policy by adopting a de facto target for the interbank rate. Although this shift has taken place with little... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices drive inflation rebound Headline inflation likely rose last month on the back of a pick-up in food prices. But after a near-term rise, we expect price pressures to ease again further ahead. 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is China’s appetite for gold faltering? The slump in China’s imports of gold in August has raised concerns about the country’s appetite for the yellow metal. However, the bigger picture is one of relatively robust demand so far this year... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rise in repo rate not a sign of policy tightening With the renminbi on the cusp on joining the IMF’s SDR basket, the PBOC appears to have been working hard to hold it steady in recent weeks. Meanwhile, attention has been drawn to a pick-up in the 7... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that the recent pick-up in activity may have extended into September, consistent with our forecasts for growth to have edged up in Q3. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
