Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Sep.) The latest import data out of China and India show that demand for gold in the two countries improved in September. We expect buying to have accelerated in October as consumers take advantage of... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.) Although the broad measure of China’s industrial production eased back in September, metals-intensive sectors continued to do well. However, we would caution that the recent rallies in the prices of... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Strong pick-up in Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growthrose in Q3 to the fastest since 2014. However, with credit growth now starting toslow and the government taking steps to... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another weak month for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports remained weak in September as higher prices, supply constraints and stronger domestic output weighed on volumes. 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China picked up last month. Global investors have regained some of their appetite for renminbi assets, but Chinese households and firms are... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities pause for breath Most commodity prices were little changed this week despite strong activity data from China. Indeed, the only industrial metals to record gains were tin and lead whose prices were buoyed by ongoing... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar Dollar strength rather than renminbi weakness has been the main driver of the latest drop in the renminbi, which has taken it to its weakest against the US dollar in over six years. In trade-weighted... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.2% y/y in September. However, in a reversal of the trend that has prevailed for much of this year... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Easy credit lifting the service sector China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q3 show stronger activity in retail and real estate... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China’s economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up in Q3. But with credit... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) The jump in new lending last month was mostly seasonal and masks a drop in broad credit growth. We expect this slowdown to continue given further signs that the focus of policy makers has shifted away... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
