Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Consumer and producer prices are both rising at a comfortable pace, with worries over deflation fading into the distance. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices are at the mercy of Chinese policymakers We think that the recent surge in coal prices is unsustainable and expect them to fall back as production rebounds, both inside and outside China, and demand remains weak. However, the extent of any... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports dip in October China’s commodity import volumes declined last month, despite signs of a pick-up in activity data. We think this reflected disruptions caused by the week-long holiday, higher commodity prices and some... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Imports continue to recover, helped by the recent strength of domestic demand, but exports remain subdued. With both global and domestic growth unlikely to accelerate much further, the medium-term... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil slips but coal continues to burn brightly Investors’ initial enthusiasm and subsequent scepticism about OPEC’s agreement in principle to cut production sent oil prices on a rollercoaster last month. Elsewhere, positive economic data from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower credit growth will keep a lid on inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have risen slightly last month but it should remain well within policymakers’ comfort zone. Looking ahead, while inflation may edge up in the short term, price... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Support from looser fiscal policy set to wane China’s overall fiscal stance has become increasingly loose in recent quarters on the back of a growing budget deficit and a renewed acceleration in off-budget borrowing by local government financing... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Household debt mountain to weigh on Asian consumers A surge in household borrowing has provided a key support to economic growth across large parts of Emerging Asia over the past few years. Worst case scenarios of a financial crisis are unlikely to... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI readings, which are the strongest in over two years, are a welcome sign that the recent cyclical recovery continued to gain momentum going into Q4. The caveat is that... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interbank rates spike but don’t signal policy shift The renminbi dropped to a six-year low against the US dollar this month but it strengthened against most other currencies in the official currency basket. Meanwhile, although a jump in interbank rates... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening? Emerging market (EM) currencies have been stable in recent months, even as the likelihood that the Fed will tighten policy in December has grown. This supports our view that EM currencies will take... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up Our GDP Tracker suggests that, having stalled in July, the EM recovery has since resumed. This is due in large part to a pick-up in growth in China. In contrast, the latest data from Brazil have... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Debt-to-equity swaps won’t resolve China’s debt woes Earlier this month, the Chinese government sketched out how it intends to address the build up of corporate debt and the threat it poses to financial stability and China’s broader economic outlook. On... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months EM inflation has been driven largely by moves in commodity prices this year. The decline in food inflation seen in recent months has probably now happened, and rising fuel inflation is set to push EM... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
