Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.5% y/y in October, boosted by higher y/y production in India, China and Russia. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP The demise of the TPP is a blow to economic prospects in Emerging Asia. The benefits of a China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What weapons would China wield in a trade war? In the event of a trade war with the US, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases. US companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s industrial production held steady in October, but metals-intensive sectors continued to do well and there was a sharp rebound in construction starts. That said, our analysis suggests that the... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The latest data for industrial production and retail sales undershot expectations but a closer look at the underlying data on output volumes suggests that the recent recovery in economic activity has... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The drop in new lending last month was seasonal and does not reflect a shift in broad credit growth, which was stable in October. This stability may not last, however, and we expect credit growth to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s economy is currently growing close to trend, despite continued subdued growth in exports. The overheated property market remains the major concern, with the recent rebound in prices after... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
