China Economics Update Bond market sell-off overdone China is ending 2016 on a stronger footing economically but with growing strains in its financial markets. A slight tightening of monetary conditions has snowballed into a bond market sell-off, with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 2.9% y/y last month, up from 1.5% y/y in October, as India, Russia and China continued to expand... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) China’s activity data for November painted a positive picture for metals demand. However, there are signs of a slowdown in the all-important construction sector which, coupled with official efforts to... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bond rout may have gone too far Chinese bond yields have jumped in recent weeks as strong economic activity and rising inflation have led many to anticipate monetary tightening. Yields may have risen too far. The latest surge in... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) The jump in new lending last month was largely seasonal. Broad credit growth did pick up slightly but the increase was small and is unlikely to elicit a major policy response. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Another set of broadly positive data suggest that China is on track to end this year on a strong note. But signs that the property sector may now be entering a correction add weight to our view that... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer and producer price inflation both accelerated last month. Rather than exporting deflation as many had previously feared, China is now a source of global inflationary pressure. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes jumped in November, despite markedly higher US dollar prices and a weaker renminbi. Trends in activity suggest that import demand will remain robust in the near-term... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Better-than-expected trade data out of China today reflects both an uptick in global demand as well as the continued strength of the domestic economy. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) A big decline in China’s FX reserves last month confirms that the People’s Bank had to step up intervention in the face of a surging US dollar and more rapid capital outflows. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain in Goldilocks zone in 2017 Despite widespread concerns about deflation at the start of this year, consumer price inflation has averaged 2% in the first ten months of 2016, up from 1.4% in 2015. We expect headline inflation to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
