China Chart Pack Signs of strength in labour market In contrast to China’s remarkably stable GDP figures, data on the labour market corroborate evidence from elsewhere that the economy strengthened in recent quarters. China created over 13 million new... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports reflect mine supply trends The pattern of China’s trade in industrial metals and ores in 2016 was determined in part by trends in global mine supply. Lower mine output of some ores was a factor curbing imports, but higher US... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector ends 2016 on a strong note China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. The full breakdown published over the weekend points to broad based... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) China’s activity data for December show the economy finishing the year on a strong note. That said, there were signs of somewhat slower growth in output last month and the downturn in state-led... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Chinese oil demand to help rebalance the market Despite a slowdown in economic growth in China from its high at the end of 2016, we expect the country’s oil demand to rise this year. 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.) GDP growth edged up last quarter, though few still take the official figures at face value. Our own measure of economic activity points to a much more pronounced recovery but one that is unlikely to... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No float for the renminbi China will need to let the renminbi float at some stage if it intends to push ahead with plans to liberalise the capital account and encourage greater international use of the currency. But, recent... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports hit new records in 2016 China’s commodity import volumes remained high in December, corroborating data showing a pick-up in activity in the final months of 2016. However, the strength of imports cannot be attributed solely... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) A strong end to the year for global manufacturing failed to prevent a decline in Chinese trade growth last month. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Bank lending in China jumped last month as higher bond yields encouraged firms to turn to banks rather than capital markets for funding. However, broad credit continued to slow. 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in December. We expect it to leap in January, but the increase is unlikely to be a major concern for policymakers. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation soft in December but set to leap Headline inflation probably fell in December. But looking ahead, we think both consumer and producer price inflation are set to jump this quarter on the back of a surge in commodity price inflation... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC down to its last $3 trillion The value of China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by 10% in 2016 as the People’s Bank fought to prevent a disorderly decline in the renminbi. With the level of reserves still well above most... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank fights back The year has started with another wave of stories about capital flooding out of China, alongside an unusually sharp strengthening of the renminbi. The currency gain over the past couple of days was... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Fastest growth since 2013 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has continued to accelerate sharply. In fact, we estimate that output is currently expanding at a pace not too far short of... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
