Commodities Weekly Mixed news for commodity markets Most commodity prices took a bit of a hit this morning as China raised its short-term interest rate, in a clear sign that supporting growth is no longer the primary immediate goal of policymakers... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017 Demand for gold in the two main consumers – China and India – plummeted in 2016 on a combination of higher prices, increased regulation in India and lower appetite for gold jewellery in China. Looking... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance The People’s Bank has raised the interest rate that it charges when providing funds in China’s repo market. This is the clearest evidence so far that monetary policy is being tightened and that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Today’s Caixin manufacturing PMI reading was less upbeat than the official PMI reading published a couple of days ago and suggests that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks were on the move in January There have been some large moves in stocks, notably in Shanghai, over the last month. Stockbuilding was evident in China which may have been a symptom of weak demand, but we think it is more likely to... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) Today’s PMI readings suggest that China’s economy continued to perform well last month, though we doubt the current strength will be sustained for much longer. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls The renminbi appreciated against the US currency this month for the first time since October, helped by a tightening of capital controls. But in trade-weighted terms, the Chinese currency has been... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still in cross-hairs over trade China’s current account surplus is no longer unusually large. But its surplus in traded goods is substantial, particularly relative to the size of the global economy, and the bilateral imbalance with... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) China’s moves to tighten capital controls are seeing some success. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August thanks to a sharp pull-back in outbound... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch China is in the driving seat when it comes to coal Coal was one of the best performing commodities in 2016 after years of declining prices. However, this revival was primarily due to reductions in supply coupled with cold weather, which boosted demand... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Nov./Dec.) China’s refinery output continued to grow in December, encouraged by higher prices and signs of a more general revival in the economy. However, we think optimism about demand will fade over the course... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth surges to fastest in over three years The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated for a ninth consecutive month in December to the fastest in more than three years. For the first time since 2011, our... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to Asia? The demise of the TPP represents a major blow to some countries in Emerging Asia, most notably Vietnam. The benefits of any China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2016) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.8% y/y last month, up from 3% y/y in November, led by a whopping 14.2% y/y jump in China’s... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
