China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) The latest import data out of China and India show weak demand for gold in the two largest consumers. While China’s data could be distorted by the timing of the New Year, in India the liquidity crunch... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), starts soon. While the NPC meeting typically includes little in the way of policy announcements, it should nonetheless... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A weak start to the year for China’s metals imports China’s metals imports were broadly weak in January. This is in line with the most recent activity data which show that the Chinese economy, while still holding up well, may have lost some momentum in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export revival boosting Hong Kong’s economy Today’s GDP figures show that growth in Hong Kong strengthened further at the end of last year on the back of a jump in exports. But while the economy should continue to perform well in the first half... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update President Trump has little power over currency markets The new US administration has made a lot of noise about currencies during its first few weeks. But there is little chance of it engineering a move away from the system of free-floating exchange rates... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers unruffled by fluctuations in wider economy Despite major swings in the wider economy over the past two years, growth in consumer spending appears to have been relatively stable. The latest data on retail sales in the Chinese New Year period... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why are we so negative on the outlook for iron ore prices? High prices are spurring iron ore production at a time when we think demand will start to slow. As such, the recent rally in prices appears unsustainable. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The huge increase in net new lending in China last month was seasonal. Growth in outstanding loans actually slowed to a ten-year low in January. Broad credit growth also slowed last month and is set... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Consumer and producer price inflation both accelerated last month. But we expect both to peak soon and think hopes for a sustained reflation in China will be disappointed. 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain robust China’s commodity import volumes jumped in January, despite a further fall in the renminbi vis-à-vis the US dollar. However, the most recent activity data show that the Chinese economy, while still... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Headline trade growth jumped in January. Seasonal factors played a large part but underlying demand also appears to have strengthened. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves are now worth less than $3trn for the first time since 2011. That said, they remain sufficiently large not to warrant any immediate concerns over the sustainability... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
