China Economics Update Inflation rebounds as New Year distortions fade Consumer price inflation ought to have rebounded from a seasonal decline in February last month but remained low. Looking ahead, households will continue to face relatively subdued price pressures in... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New economic zone won’t match Shenzhen, Pudong China’s government recently launched a new economic zone near Beijing that it is billing as the most important project of its kind since the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai’s Pudong New... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rise signals growing concern over credit risks China’s interbank repo rates have fallen back slightly after the headline-grabbing spike last week that took them to their highest in more than two years. But the bigger picture is that the PBOC has... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) Today’s PMI readings suggest that China’s economy continued to perform well in March, though we doubt the current strength will be sustained for much longer. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leader of the free (trade) world? President Xi Jinping is heading to the US next week presenting himself – in contrast to President Trump – as a champion of free trade. Foreign firms operating in China tell a different story. In this... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Out of the woods? Evidence of a sharp turnaround in growth and policymakers’ success in preventing a destabilising slide in the renminbi have underpinned a dramatic shift in sentiment towards China. But there are good... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Feb.) The latest import data from China and India show a mixed picture of gold demand in the two largest consumers. While China’s demand has started the new year on a soft note, an easing of the liquidity... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for Chinese equities? Although our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth in China’s economy has picked up significantly over the past year, we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as policy support is withdrawn... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports sink China’s metals imports appear to have started the year on a soft note. Higher prices might have deterred purchases but we think that, in some cases, demand has also been sluggish. That said, we are... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s coal demand to resume downward trend Cold weather and strong economic growth have supported coal consumption in China recently. But a slowing economy and strong growth in renewables should undermine demand later in the year. 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2017 The latest People’s Bank surveys show that conditions for banks, firms and households have all continued to improve this quarter. But while the general picture was positive, there were also some dark... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth no longer accelerating We’ve revised up our 2017 growth forecast for China following the recent run of strong data. At the same time though, the latest figures on our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggest that the acceleration... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China witnessed a net inflow of capital last month for the first time in almost three years. Tighter capital controls and seasonal factors helped drive this... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC tightening triggered by Fed action People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made clear at the National People’s Congress that the trend would be towards further monetary tightening over coming months. So today’s decision by the PBOC to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
