China Economics Update Renminbi may be approaching a turning point Analysts are convinced that the renminbi can only go one way – down against the dollar. But a return to appreciation is looking increasingly plausible. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports likely to remain subdued China’s trade data for March depict a relatively weak picture for metals demand. While in some cases imports picked up in the first quarter, we think that optimism about demand rather than strong... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) The latest trade data show a sharp rise in gold imports in China and India in March. While demand in India picked up ahead of the Akshaya Tritiya festival, Chinese buyers probably took advantage of... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Early signs that growth is edging down Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of Q1. There are good reasons to think that this foreshadows a broader slowdown in the economy in coming quarters. 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Feb./Mar.) China’s refinery output picked up pace in the first quarter, encouraged by higher prices and optimism about demand. Iron ore and steel production were growing particularly strongly, but prices have... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China’s net capital outflows have been close to zero during the past two months. This is a major shift from late last year when monthly outflows exceeded... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Mar.) China’s activity and investment data for March were robust and point to a strengthening of metals demand in the first quarter. However, the prospect of a steadily tightening policy environment over... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Investment not as strong as meets the eye Nominal investment growth accelerated in Q1, leading to increased optimism over this year’s economic outlook. But adjusting the data for the jump in fixed asset price inflation suggests that... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1) & Activity & Spending (Mar.) Growth edged up last quarter according to the official GDP figures. Our own measure of economic activity also points to a strong start to 2017, though we don’t expect the strength to be sustained. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports grow, but so do stocks Strong growth in China’s commodity imports in March would, at first glance, appear to be supportive of commodity prices. However, the rise in stocks of some commodities suggests that the buying has... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) The latest trade data point to buoyant external demand but suggest that domestic demand may have started to cool. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation remained tepid last month, suggesting that there was more to the drop in February than just seasonal factors. Producer price inflation remains rapid but has begun to come off... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Mar.) China’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly stable last month, suggesting that the recent easing of capital outflows has allowed the People’s Bank to step back from FX intervention. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit We expect Donald Trump to tone down his criticism of China’s mercantilist policies when he meets Xi Jinping later today in order to focus on dealing with the more pressing threat from North Korea. If... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
